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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."